The Sixth Risk: Our Eroding Ability to Create and Maintain Functional Systems
Introduction
In his 2018 book The Fifth Risk, Michael Lewis identified a series of existential threats facing American governance. Through the lens of the Department of Energy, USDA, and other agencies, he uncovered risks that few had articulated: the danger in neglecting the essential work of government that keeps society functioning.
Lewis's fifth risk — "program management" — represented "the existential threat that you never really even imagine as a risk." It was the danger of responding to long-term challenges with short-term solutions. The innovation never created, the knowledge never developed, what you never learned that might have saved you.
But there's a sixth risk that Lewis didn't identify — perhaps because it hadn't yet fully manifested when he was writing. It's a meta-risk that threatens our ability to address all other risks: our eroding ability to create and maintain functional systems at all.
The Nature of the Sixth Risk
This risk isn't about specific threats — it's about our collective capacity to respond to any threat. It's the systematic erosion of competence and functioning capacity across institutions, resulting in an inability to build or maintain working systems.
Unlike natural disasters, economic downturns, or even pandemics, this risk doesn't announce itself with dramatic headlines. It accumulates quietly, manifesting in canceled projects, diminishing services, and systems that mysteriously stop working.
The Sixth Risk represents a breakdown in our most fundamental capacity: the ability to implement solutions even when we know what needs to be done.
Evidence in Plain Sight
The evidence surrounds us. Consider the case of “Unakite Thirteen Hotel” — a child whose computer-generated hospital name couldn’t be changed because no one in two different government agencies could navigate the circular trap of needing a Social Security number to get a birth certificate and needing a birth certificate to get a Social Security number. Only after media attention did a solution magically appear.
Or consider the countless IT modernization projects across government that consume billions of dollars only to be abandoned. Or infrastructure projects that take decades to complete at many times their original budget.
These aren’t isolated failures — they’re symptoms of a deeper erosion in our ability to create and maintain functional systems.
Root Causes
The Devaluation of Expertise
We’ve witnessed a systematic devaluation of expertise and institutional knowledge. The people who understand how systems actually work—not just in theory but in practice—are increasingly sidelined, retired, or replaced. Their deep knowledge of how to keep complex systems functioning gets dismissed as resistance to change or outdated thinking.
The Fetishization of Innovation Over Maintenance
Our culture celebrates disruption and innovation while neglecting the crucial work of maintenance. We reward those who promise revolutionary new systems while underfunding the unglamorous work of keeping existing infrastructure functioning.
The Fragmentation of Responsibility Without Accountability
Modern systems increasingly span organizational boundaries, with responsibility fragmented across agencies, contractors, and technology platforms. When something fails, accountability is nearly impossible to assign.
The Collapse of Knowledge Transfer
Traditional models of apprenticeship and knowledge transfer have broken down. Documentation is inadequate, mentorship programs are underfunded, and tacit knowledge disappears when experienced staff leave.
The Self-Reinforcing Cycle
What makes the Sixth Risk particularly dangerous is its self-reinforcing nature. Each system failure triggers responses that further degrade capacity:
- A system fails in some visible way
- Public trust erodes, leading to budget cuts or reorganizations
- Experienced staff leave or are pushed out
- Knowledge and capability are lost
- Quick fixes are implemented without addressing root causes
- These short-term solutions create new vulnerabilities
- The next failure becomes more likely and potentially more catastrophic
Each cycle leaves institutions weaker. We see this in healthcare IT, infrastructure, information systems, and more.
Why Traditional Solutions Fall Short
Digital Transformation Projects
Large-scale initiatives fail by focusing on tech over human systems. New interfaces are created without consideration for how they will be used in practice.
Outsourcing Expertise
Reliance on vendors erodes internal capacity. Organizations become unable to manage their own systems effectively.
Administrative Reform
Structural reforms ignore implementation capacity. Moving boxes on an org chart doesn't rebuild competence.
Policy Changes Without Implementation Planning
Policies fail when detached from realistic plans. The gap between ambition and capability grows.
Toward Resilient Systems
Revitalizing Clinical Practice
We must value the hands-on practice of keeping systems running. Preservation of knowledge is essential.
Designing for Resilience
Systems must withstand stress, include redundancy, support human oversight, and learn from feedback.
Creating Interface Coherence
We must design to prevent the "interface trap." Systems must empower judgment and allow navigation through complexity.
Balancing Innovation and Maintenance
Maintenance deserves equal recognition and resourcing. Sustainers are as vital as inventors.
Conclusion: The Stakes
The Sixth Risk threatens our ability to address any challenge. When people lose faith in systems, they lose faith in the idea that collective action works.
This erosion fuels political nihilism. If government can’t deliver a birth certificate, why trust it with climate or health?
To confront this risk, we must recommit to the foundational work of functionality. It’s not glamorous. But it may be the most urgent work of our time.